THE PRODUCTIVITY BOMB Sorry, Ray Kurzweil , there will be no singularity. As much as Moore’s Law has become a cliche, it has also become a cliche to point out that exponential growth has no "knee" - that is to say, that an exponential growth curve has no inflection point. It goes up faster and faster, so that not only is the value rising but the derivative of the value is also rising (that is, the rate of increase is itself increasing) yet at any given point it is still a gradual increase. Growth that gets indefinitely huger as it approaches a specific point of time, a limit known as a singularity, is not exponential growth but rather hyperbolic growth . There’s no evidence that technology is growing hyperbolically; it is “only” growing exponentially. Gordon Moore himself has stated that he doesn't believe in the singularity, or even in the continuation of Moore's Law. (And Moore's Law is starting to fail, anyway ... ) But it hard
It is a pet theory of mine that the "greatness" or "importance" of a philosopher is mostly determined by that philosopher's subsequent degree of influence on a government leader. Would we still talk about Socrates, if his student Critias had not taken over Athens as the leader of the Dictatorship of the Thirty? Would we talk about Aristotle, had he not tutored Alexander, who later became Alexander the Great and took over a vast part of the ancient world? Would we remember Rousseau, had not Robespierre declared him "divine"? Or Locke and Montesquieu, had not the founders of the United States revered them? The esteem given to the philosophy by professional professors within the academy matters less, and its internal coherence, or insight, or truth matters less still. By this measure, Ayn Rand is, unfortunately, the most important philosopher of the 20th century. Even though she is barely noticed by philosophy departments, Ayn Rand is massively
"Free Will" vs. "Determinism" What does it mean to have "solved" a philosophical problem? This is, in itself, a philosophical problem. I don't feel comfortable saying I've solved any philosophical problems, but what if I propose a notion of having "minimally solved" a problem - that is, not necessary coming up with the right answer, let alone an answer that will end the debate for everyone, but coming up with the general shape or framework (perhaps missing some important specifics) of an answer that satisfies me , at least to the point where the problem doesn't endlessly torture me and keep me up at night? If, by "solved," we mean "minimally solved," then I think I have solved the problem that is usually called the debate between "free will" and "determinism". Not that my answer is particularly original. Actually, not I, but modern neuroscience solved this puzzle. And all I mean is tha
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