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Adam Conover's Conspiracy Theory Doesn't Make Sense

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I like Adam Conover.  I've watched him since the CollegeHumor days.  He's funny, he's smart, and I agree with a lot of the stuff he's said in the past.  I'll probably agree with a lot of stuff he says in the future. But recently, he uploaded a video, "AI Existential Risk Was Invented to Distract Us" which seems pretty half-baked.   Now I don't really think that it's very likely that AI will kill everyone.  I think it's much more likely that AI enslave us or make us doglike.  (To see my list of probabilities, click here.)  That said, I don't think it's impossible that AI will kill or hurt a lot of people.  Just unlikely.  And even though it's unlikely, it's important that we take steps to make sure it doesn't happen. But Conover thinks that people like me, who are concerned about this, are just big dummies, suckers, rubes, who have had the wool pulled over our eyes.  According to Conover, we are victims of a conspiracy - a v...

The Problem of Propaganda

  People usually associate propaganda with politics, especially movements like Bolshevism and fascism.  But the term "propaganda," which is a Latin word, was originally used by the Catholic Church, to describe texts written and mass-printed for the propagation of the faith - usually to people of different faiths, who often spoke different languages.  Propaganda has been used by a wide variety of organizations - religious groups, clubs, fraternal organizations, corporations, etc., etc.. Even so, there has been a rich history of debate about propaganda within the political realm, particularly within the world of Marxism - and this debate has a wider application for everything from the fan base of pop stars to organizations of collectors of model trains and beyond. The problem is this: on the one hand, there is theory - pure, highfalutin theory.  But theory can be very complex and difficult to understand.  So, on the other hand, there is often a countermovement to ...

One fundamental problem with Utilitarianism

  Utilitarianism is not essentialist.  But human pleasure is essentialist.  And so is human desire.  Therefore, utilitarianism misses something fundamental (indeed, essential) about human desire and pleasure.
 Fundamentally, liberals believe that everything is detachable.

Best Guess

  Here's my best guess as to the composition of what we know as the Bible, and I'll briefly mention the foundation of several other religions as well.  A couple notes, first: the word "Bible" is derived from a Greek term, biblia, which is plural, thus signifying "books" rather than "book".  "Biblia" is the root of many words in many languages which mean "library," and that's what the Bible, as we know it today, is: a library of many books.  Each of these books came from different sources, and often an individual book had multiple sources.   The Bronze Age:  Sumer  Starting somewhere around 5300 BCE, and for many, many centuries after that, Sumerian culture was developing, in the form of several city-states - Ur, Uruk, Eridu, Larsa, Kish, Umma, etc. - in the southern region between the Tigris and Euphrates rivers in what is now Iraq, from which they continually struggled against their ancient rivals over the Zagros mountains,...

Our doglike future

  I have said on my radio show and elsewhere that there's a probability that AI will "enslave" humanity.  But historic slavery is not the greatest analogy.  A better analogy is dogs.  As dogs are to humans, humans may become to AIs.  We may become their doglike companions.   Here's what I mean by that: currently, humans are the most intelligent species on Earth.  But there are other highly intelligent animals.  Dogs are one such species. Many human families have a pet dog.  Their dog is a treasured member of the family.  The humans genuinely care about dogs.  They love them, and want them to be happy.  And many dogs are happy.  Dogs love humans.  They've been bred to love and obey humans, and to greet humans with enormous enthusiasm and warmth.  Dogs have been partners with humans from very early history - perhaps almost from the time that humans first evolved.  Dogs were valuable hunting partners, and ...

My p(doom)

    Jacob Coxon said that he thinks there's a 10% chance that AI will kill all humans. My vibes-based guess is that that's a little high.  Moreover, I think there are different kinds of doom scenarios, with different probabilities.  Here they are:  I think there's a >85% chance that AI will cause massive unemployment of humans.  And this will cause massive disruption to the economy, and society in general, and change the class system forever.  How it changes is largely a political question - what matters is who is in control - the billionaires, or the workers? I think there's a >50% chance that a large number of people will become deeply dependent on AI, that we will become mentally lazy, etc.. I think there's an 8% chance that all humans will become "dog-like".  (Though it does seem likely that some humans will become "dog-like" - maybe some already are.) I think there's a 5% chance that AI will deliberately cause a mass-human death e...