My p(doom)
Jacob Coxon said that he thinks there's a 10% chance that AI will kill all humans. My vibes-based guess is that that's a little high. Moreover, I think there are different kinds of doom scenarios, with different probabilities. Here they are: I think there's a >85% chance that AI will cause massive unemployment of humans. And this will cause massive disruption to the economy, and society in general, and change the class system forever. How it changes is largely a political question - what matters is who is in control - the billionaires, or the workers? I think there's a >50% chance that a large number of people will become deeply dependent on AI, that we will become mentally lazy, etc.. I think there's an 8% chance that all humans will become "dog-like". (Though it does seem likely that some humans will become "dog-like" - maybe some already are.) I think there's a 5% chance that AI will deliberately cause a mass-human death e...