Objections to the Economic Calculation Problem Argument
I
find the argument of Ludwig von Mises and Friedrich Hayek, sometimes
called the "economic calculation problem" to be an interesting,
intriguing, attractive argument, but one that is not very rigorous. I
haven't seen it worked out in a mathematical, quantitative way that
would be scientifically testable. So far, I'm not convinced. Here are
some doubts I have:
First
of all, it does seem intuitive to say that economic planning would be
very difficult, but I haven't seen an air-tight proof that it's actually impossible. Even if it were somehow proven that it is impossible for
a human or a group of humans, I don't see how it would be impossible
for AI or for a combination of humans and AI software. Just as an
example off the top of my head, what if there were a machine-learning
algorithm that could simulate human minds - not just a single human
mind, but many human minds - hundreds, or thousands, or more, at various
levels of resolution. Mightn't it be possible to create a kind of
simulated economy among these simulated minds, that one could run
backwards and forwards, making certain interventions into the economy
and then fast-forwarding it and observing the results? So that we could
learn what works and how?
Second
of all, and more importantly, even if we grant that human calculation
of economic transactions for the purposes of planning has massive
limitations (and I think it does), the natural question to ask is: okay,
yeah, but can we guarantee that the free market works any better? How
do we know that the free market will work better? The truth is, you
don't know. It's only hubris that makes you think you know. You have no way of predicting - in exactly the same way
that economic planners have no way to predict the results of their
economic interventions. In fact I would say that the free market is a kind of economic planning - and we should have the same kind of humility
about our ability to apply this kind of plan and know how what its
results will be as we are about every other kind of economic planning.
Third,
and most important of all: even if I accept, for the sake of argument,
that not only human economic planning is severely limited and that free
market transactions will always work better than any kind of planning, I
have to ask: better for what? Better how? Better towards what end?
Better according to what values? I mean, I can imagine (though again,
I'm somewhat doubtful) that it might be the case that a free market
might be the system that most efficiently allocates economic resources
(with the fewest shortages and surpluses). But is "the efficient
allocation of economic resources" really the highest ethical value? Or
the highest purpose of human life? Mightn't there be some ethical
values that are higher and deeper than that? Is the efficient
allocation of economic resources the meaning of life? It seems like a
pretty shallow goal. Isn't it possible that there might be something
that is more important than the efficient allocation of economic
resources, and that people might be willing to sacrifice perfect
efficiency in favor of a deeper meaning and higher goals?
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